Three federal by-elections held yesterday, August 31, produced three wins for the Liberal Party.
Their candidates each achieved more than 50% of the votes cast in each of North Vancouver-Capilano, Beaches-East York, and Chicoutimi-Le Fjord.
The second place finish in each of those ridings went to different parties: one to the Bloc Québécois (near Montreal but strongly rural), one to NDP (in the downtown Toronto area), and one to Conservative (in North Vancouver).
Today Prime Minister Mark Carney said the Liberal wins are a validation of the direction his Liberal government is taking, in particular about the trade war and the Canada Strong approach.
There were four advance voting days for each of the by-elections during August 21 to 24.
Voter turnout was over 40% in all three by-elections, which could be considered strong considering the end-of-summer time frame for door-knocking and getting people out to vote.
Cabinet ministers:
On election night, all three Liberal MPs-elect were supported by current cabinet ministers — Joël Lightbound for the Chicoutimi-Le Fjord winner, Evan Solomon for Beaches-East York, and Gregor Robertson in North Vancouver-Capilano.
August 31 by-election results:
Here are the by-election results for the three August 31 by-elections:
- North Vancouver-Capilano saw Liberal candidate Braeden Caley achieve 58.6% of the vote. Conservative candidate Stephan Curran placed second with 29.2% of the vote. Green candidate Shelley Luce placed third with 8.7% of the vote. Voter turnout was 45.6%.
- Beaches-East York saw Liberal candidate Tanveer Shahnawaz achieve 55.7% of the vote. NDP candidate Shannon Devine placed second with 25.8% of the vote. The Conservative candidate Jim Syrbos placed third with 15.5% of the vote. Voter turnout was 40.39%.
- Chicoutimi-LeFjord saw Liberal candidate Daniel Gobeil achieved 51.3% of the vote. Bloc Québécois candidate Caroline Dubé placed second with 32.9% of the vote. The Conservative candidate Régis Gaudreault placed third with 12.5% of the vote. Voter turnout was 42.2%.
Points of celebration:
The NDP are pleased at showing a strong second-place result in Beaches-East York. It’s seen as an indication of some returning party strength after having lost 19 seats in the 2025 federal general election. NDP Leader Avi Lewis says it shows that the party “has returned to fighting form”.
The Greens placed third in North Vancouver-Capilano which eclipsed the NDP who landed in fourth place there. As long-time founding Green Party Leader prepares to hand over the leadership reins soon, this is strong affirmation of the Green Party’s relevance in the federal poltiical ecosystem.
Point of concern:
The Conservative Party may be concerned at not winning the seat they previously held in Chicoutimi-Le Fjord (placing third there) and also not placing third after the NDP in the Toronto area.
Snapshot in time:
By-elections are a snapshot in time — often reflecting the overall mood of the country than being about specific candidates who run or win.
More by-elections soon:
There are six more federal by-elections coming up soon (three in Quebec, two in Ontario, one in Saskatchewan), dates to be announced.
House of Commons for Fall session:
This means that the House of Commons returns on September 21 with five vacant seats but with Carney’s Liberal government in majority.
The full House of Commons has 343 seats, with current standings: Liberal 173, Conservative 138, Bloc Québécois 21, NDP 5 and Green 1 (and five vacant).