In a personal newsletter version of his firm’s 100-day assessment, Abacus Data CEO David Coletto frames Lewis’s first three months as leader as “fine with the people he needed to keep” but short of reaching the people he needs to grow. Among current NDP voters, 65% view Lewis positively and just 3% negatively — no base revolt — yet the party remains stuck at 8% nationally.
Coletto’s central point is that being liked by NDP voters is necessary but nowhere near enough. Only 34% of Canadians say they would consider voting NDP, essentially unchanged since Lewis became leader (it was 35% in early April), against 56% openness back when the party was competitive in 2015. Lewis’s own national numbers have barely moved: a quarter of the country still says it doesn’t know enough about him to form an impression.
He argues the deeper problem is structural — the Carney Liberals are occupying the political ground the NDP would need to reclaim, and remain competitive even on affordability and the economy. Lewis may have stabilized the party and reassured New Democrats, Coletto concludes, but 100 days in he has not yet changed the shape of Canadian public opinion, and the task now is to give voters a reason to reconsider the NDP itself.
Source: David Coletto (Substack). Reproduced for reference under fair dealing (Copyright Act, s. 29).