Roughly 100 days after Avi Lewis was elected federal NDP leader on March 29, Abacus Data’s tracking finds the party still boxed into a familiar position: liked by a small core, but unable to broaden its reach. The NDP sits at 8% nationally, behind the Liberals (44%) and Conservatives (36%), and only narrowly ahead of the Bloc Québécois (7%).
Coletto’s read is that Lewis is doing well with the voters he needed to keep but has not yet reached the ones he needs to grow. Among current NDP voters, 65% have a positive impression of Lewis and only 3% negative — no sign of a base revolt. But the accessible-voter pool (Canadians who would consider voting NDP) has been flat since he took over, at 34% now versus 35% in early April. For comparison, 56% said they were open to the NDP when the party was competitive in 2015.
Lewis himself remains undefined to the wider public: nationally 17% positive, 27% negative, 31% neutral, and 25% who say they don’t know enough to judge — numbers that have barely moved in three months. Coletto argues the NDP’s problem is bigger than its leader, with the Carney Liberals holding much of the political ground the party would need, including on affordability and the economy. His conclusion: the next step is not just getting Canadians to know Avi Lewis better, but giving them a reason to consider the NDP again.
Source: Abacus Data. Reproduced for reference under fair dealing (Copyright Act, s. 29).