Liaison Strategies’ Weekly Federal Tracker, released August 17, 2026, shows the Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, holding an 11-point lead over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, while Carney’s approval rises to 60%.
Vote intention
Among decided and leaning voters:
| Party | Support |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 43% |
| Conservative | 32% |
| NDP | 13% |
| Bloc Québécois | 6% |
| Green | 3% |
| People’s Party | 2% |
| Other | 1% |
Among all voters, the Liberals are at 38%, the Conservatives at 27%, the NDP at 11%, the Bloc at 5%, the Greens at 2%, the People’s Party at 1%, Other parties at 0%, and 15% are undecided.
David Valentin, principal at Liaison Strategies, on the ballot movement:
“This is still a strong Liberal lead, but the ballot movement is modest. The Liberals are down one point from last week to 43%, the Conservatives are up one point to 32%, and the NDP is unchanged at 13%. That narrows the Liberal lead from 13 points to 11 points.”
“The broader point is that the Liberals have now held a double-digit national lead for two consecutive weeks. This week does not look like a new Liberal surge; it looks like a stable Liberal advantage after last week’s Conservative slide.”
Leader favourability
On Carney:
“The more interesting movement is Carney’s approval. His approval is up three points to 60%, while disapproval is down two points to 31%. That puts him at plus 29, and it is his highest approval number in the tracker since early May.”
“Carney’s approval is broad, but not uniform. He is strongest in Quebec at 76%, British Columbia at 64%, and Atlantic Canada at 63%. Alberta remains his weakest region, where 39% approve and 54% disapprove.”
On Poilievre:
“Poilievre’s favourable number is up one point to 35%, but his unfavourable number remains at 53%. That is the least bad version of the Conservative story this week: he improves slightly on favourability, but remains deeply underwater.”
“Poilievre’s regional numbers continue to show the shape of the Conservative coalition. He is favourable with 74% in Alberta and 56% in the Prairies, but only 17% in Quebec, 27% in Atlantic Canada, 32% in British Columbia, and 34% in Ontario.”
On the NDP leader:
“Avi Lewis is back to a slightly positive personal rating. He is at 31% favourable and 29% unfavourable, with 19% not sure and 21% not familiar with him. His favourable number is up one point, while his unfavourable number is down one point.”
“Lewis continues to be most interesting in two places: younger voters and British Columbia. Among voters aged 18 to 34, the NDP is at 25%, just behind the Liberals at 34% and Conservatives at 26%. In British Columbia, the NDP is at 21%, and Lewis’s favourability is 45%.”
Regional and demographic splits
Regionally, the Liberals lead in Atlantic Canada, Quebec, Ontario, and British Columbia. The Conservatives lead in the Prairies and Alberta. In Ontario, the Liberals lead 47% to 35%. In Quebec, the Liberals are at 45%, the Bloc at 26%, and the Conservatives at 18%. In British Columbia, the Liberals lead the Conservatives 43% to 30%, with the NDP at 21%.
Among women, the Liberals lead the Conservatives 47% to 27%. Among men, the race is closer at 41% Liberal to 37% Conservative. Among voters 65 and older, the Liberals lead 55% to 27%.
Valentin’s summary:
“Overall, the Liberals remain ahead because Carney is personally strong, older voters are still anchored to the Liberals, and the Conservatives have not broadened their support beyond their regional strengths. The Conservatives recovered a point this week, but they are still facing an 11-point Liberal lead and a prime minister whose approval has moved back up to 60%.”
Methodology
Liaison surveyed a random sample of 1,526 Canadians from August 2 to August 15, 2026, using Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology. Participants were reached through random digit dialling (RDD) across landline and cellular phone networks. The data was weighted to match targets based on the 2021 Census. The margin of error for the total sample is +/-2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, though this margin is higher for sub-samples. Results may not add up to 100% due to rounding.