338Canada’s weekly federal and provincial roundup. The Conservatives slip to their lowest level in the 338Canada aggregate since late 2022, while the Liberals hold a double-digit national lead.
On the federal NDP, the analysis notes “modest signs of recovery” but cautions that Avi Lewis “and his team still have a long way to go.” A new Pallas Data national poll put the parties at 45% LPC, 32% CPC, and 11% NDP — a five-point Liberal gain and five-point Conservative drop since Pallas’s January survey.
The update flags a cluster of looming Montreal by-elections. Liberal MP Steven Guilbeault (Laurier–Sainte-Marie) is expected to resign in the coming months, while neighbouring Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie will become vacant later this summer when NDP MP Alexandre Boulerice leaves federal politics to run for Québec solidaire in the fall Quebec election. Both ridings were Bloc Québécois strongholds before Jack Layton’s 2011 Orange Wave swept them up.
On the provincial side, the roundup covers Alberta’s referendum polling and the new B.C. Conservative leader, Kerry-Lyne Findlay. Of note for the NDP: Angus Reid Institute data show federal NDP and Liberal voters in Alberta — about 35% of the province’s 2025 federal electorate — are overwhelmingly pro-federation, with 96% of 2025 NDP voters saying they would vote for Alberta to remain in Canada.