Éric Grenier’s weekly polling roundup reviews a batch of late-June national surveys — from Nanos, Liaison Strategies, Abacus Data and Léger — and concludes that an apparent softening in Liberal support a few weeks earlier did not endure, with the party reverting toward a mid-40s mean (between 43 and 48 per cent across the four polls) and the Conservatives steady between 32 and 37 per cent.
For the NDP, Grenier frames the party as “a bit of an enigma”: Léger pegs it at just 6 per cent (matching its 2025 election result) while Liaison has it as high as 14 per cent, an eight-point spread he says exceeds simple sampling error. Splitting the difference across the four polls, he estimates the New Democrats at around 10 per cent. He notes that as the pendulum swings back toward the Liberals, it appears to swing against the NDP — Nanos, Liaison and Abacus all show the party slipping slightly from recent independent highs of 14 and 16 per cent, suggesting it may be “coming back down to earth.” A Manitoba poll from Probe Research is cited showing the NDP regaining some ground provincially.
The remainder of the newsletter covers a Nova Scotia PC byelection win, provincial polling, and historical-elections content unrelated to the federal NDP transition.
Source: The Writ. Reproduced for reference under fair dealing (Copyright Act, s. 29).