The old sporting adage that the best defence is a good offence is applicable here for the three main federal parties.
OTTAWA—Parliament has risen for the summer, and it is yet again a key time for political parties to tend to all-important local political concerns that ultimately drive the successes or failures of Members of Parliament.
For Prime Minister Mark Carney and the Liberals—except for flag waving around the World Cup and big hopes that Canada goes on a run on the pitch—it seems much of what they will focus on is trying to show they get people’s affordability challenges. We have already seen announcements around housing, and it’s not hard to imagine a flood of other public-spending newsers on the horizon.
The Liberals have to build a good defensive posture on local affordability options while they try to score the golden goal with some kind of new trading arrangement with the United States. Dealing with U.S. President Donald Trump is unpredictable, but it is easy to forecast that, at some point, Canadians’ appreciation of the prime minister will sour, and their own personal economic challenges will be the main driver.
The Liberals also likely will want a cabinet freshening up, and the summer or early fall presents that opportunity. Some new faces and new voices driving a few of the affordability centred portfolios could be valuable to the government.
Pierre Poilievre and his Conservative team have some unique calculus to manage during the summer. For the leader himself, he needs to find a way to make the party’s poll numbers move up. It is a lazy theory to say time is on his side and to just wait for Carney’s slide. Time is not the official opposition leader’s friend. It is not hard to imagine a scenario where, if the polls don’t move upward for Poilievre in the late summer and fall, he could face serious leadership challenges.
It is more common to hear now that Poilievre is a drain on his party. He needs to push “cancel” on that refrain, or he himself risks getting cancelled. Poilievre needs to use the summer to remind his party and Canadians he has winnability. While articulating grievance is still an important part of his job as opposition leader, he needs to do it smartly and strategically, not daily and with such enjoyment.
Poilievre might also want to give thought to re-profiling some of his surrogate communicators. It remains a mystery why former leader Andrew Scheer, on whom the public rendered a comprehensive verdict, features so prominently in the Conservatives’ message strategy. There are better communicators in the Conservative camp who are relatable and don’t fixate on parliamentary game issues as their primary message tracks.
The Conservatives need help from the NDP, and that party’s new leader, Avi Lewis, has an opportunity this summer to start to carve out some of the traditional ground that was lost by former leader Jagmeet Singh. Namely, giving a conscience and a voice to those who feel abandoned by the Liberals; climate activists and more leftist progressive who don’t see Carney’s Liberals representing them the way Trudeau’s did. Lewis knows how to make noise, and now he needs to find a way to build an audience.
Lewis also needs to find a path into Parliament, and do something bold to put some mojo into his party. With the loss of their only remaining Quebec MP coming in the fall as Alexander Boulerice seeks a provincial seat, Lewis needs a plan to stop the NDP from being a minivan party headed toward a Mini Cooper plot.
The old sporting adage that the best defence is a good offence is applicable here for the three main federal parties. So, who will grab the next three months and make them their own?
Tim Powers is chairman of Summa Strategies, and managing director of Abacus Data. He is a former adviser to Conservative political leaders.
The Hill Times