Liaison Strategies’ Weekly Federal Tracker for the week of June 22, 2026 shows the Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, returning to an 11-point lead over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives — a margin they last held in late May.
Vote intention
Among decided and leaning voters:
| Party | Support |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 43% |
| Conservative | 32% |
| NDP | 14% |
| Bloc Québécois | 6% |
| Green | 2% |
| PPC | 2% |
| Other | 2% |
Among all voters, the Liberals are at 37%, the Conservatives at 28%, the NDP at 12%, the Bloc at 5%, the Greens at 2%, the PPC and Other at 1% each, with 14% undecided.
Leader favourability
David Valentin, principal at Liaison Strategies, noted that Carney’s approval is steady at 57% with disapproval down one point to 36%, leaving him at a net positive of 21 points.
On the Conservative leader: Poilievre’s favourable rating is up 2 points to 39%, tying his tracker high, while his unfavourable rating is down 2 points to 47%, the lowest the firm has recorded for him. At net -8, Valentin called it Poilievre’s best overall standing in the tracker — but observed that the improvement in his personal numbers has not moved the Conservative ballot share, which is unchanged at 32%.
On the NDP leader:
“Avi Lewis is also becoming more defined. His favourable rating is up 2 points to 28%, but his unfavourable rating is also up 2 points to 25%. As voters get to know him, they are forming opinions in both directions.”
“Lewis continues to stand out in British Columbia, where his favourable rating is 49%. The NDP is also strongest in BC at 22% among decided and leaning voters, though the Liberals still lead there with 43%.”
Regional and age splits
Regionally, the Liberals lead in Atlantic Canada, Quebec, Ontario, and British Columbia, while the Conservatives lead in the Prairies and Alberta. Ontario was a major source of Liberal strength this week, with the Liberals at 48% and the Conservatives at 34% among decided and leaning voters.
Among voters aged 18 to 34, the Liberals are at 34%, the Conservatives at 28%, and the NDP at 25%. Among voters 65 and older, the Liberals are at 56%.
Methodology
Liaison surveyed a random sample of 1,526 Canadians from June 7 to June 20, 2026, using Interactive Voice Recording technology, with participants reached through random digit dialling across landline and cellular networks. The data was weighted to 2021 Census targets. The margin of error for the total sample is ±2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Liaison Strategies is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council.