This latest wave of Abacus Data’s federal political tracking finds little evidence that the shifts observed earlier this month have continued.
After a survey two weeks ago showed declining optimism about the country, lower government approval, softer ratings for Prime Minister Mark Carney, and a narrowing Liberal lead, this latest wave suggests the drop measured last wave hasn’t continued. Government approval has edged slightly higher, Carney’s personal ratings are unchanged, the Liberal vote share remains almost identical, and Canadians are marginally more optimistic about the direction of the country than they were at the beginning of June.
Taken together, the data suggest that the deterioration in public opinion observed earlier this month has not accelerated, nor has it fully reversed. Instead, the electorate may have settled into a relatively stable equilibrium.
Note: most of this survey was completed prior to news about a new deal reached between the United States and Iran, and most interviews were completed prior to the G7 meetings in France.
Direction of the Country: Optimism Edges Higher but Mood Remains Mixed
Today, 42% of Canadians believe the country is headed in the right direction while 44% say it is on the wrong track — a modest improvement from two weeks ago (40% right direction, 45% wrong track).
Views of the broader world remain overwhelmingly pessimistic: only 13% believe the world is headed in the right direction while 74% say it is on the wrong track. Perceptions of the United States are similarly negative (14% right direction vs. 77% wrong track).
Older Canadians remain the most optimistic. Half of Canadians aged 60 and over believe the country is headed in the right direction, compared with only 35% of those aged 18 to 29. Liberal voters continue to be overwhelmingly positive while only 21% of Conservative voters share that view.
Cost of Living Continues to Dominate the Issue Agenda
The cost of living remains by far the most important issue facing the country. Two-thirds of Canadians (66%) rank it among the top three issues, unchanged from two weeks ago. The economy follows at 39%, healthcare at 35%, housing affordability at 34%, and Donald Trump and his administration at 31%.
The Liberals continue to hold advantages among voters focused on healthcare, climate change, inequality, Indigenous reconciliation, housing affordability, and concerns about Donald Trump. The Conservatives continue to lead among voters focused on immigration, crime and public safety, and threats posed by China and Russia. The Liberals remain competitive among voters focused on economic concerns and the cost of living.
Federal Government Approval Rebounds Slightly
Approval of the federal government led by Mark Carney has improved modestly: today 55% approve and 30% disapprove (approval up three points, disapproval down one from two weeks ago). Those numbers place government approval back near the levels recorded throughout much of the spring.
Carney Maintains Advantage Over Poilievre
Mark Carney’s personal ratings are virtually unchanged: 51% positive and 30% negative, a net favourability of +21 — identical to the score recorded earlier this month. Carney performs especially well in Quebec (+38) and among Canadians aged 60 and over (+36).
Pierre Poilievre’s numbers have also changed very little: 38% positive and 44% negative, a net score of -6.
NDP leader Avi Lewis also remains largely unchanged, with a net impression score of -8. The leadership environment today looks remarkably similar to what it did at the beginning of June.
Liberals Continue to Lead Nationally
If an election were held today, the Liberals would receive 45% of the committed vote compared with 37% for the Conservatives. The NDP stands at 9%, the Bloc Québécois at 6%, and the Greens at 2% — an eight-point national Liberal lead.
Compared with the previous survey, both the Liberals and Conservatives are up one point while the NDP has declined by two. The Liberals lead in Ontario, Quebec, British Columbia, and Atlantic Canada, while the Conservatives maintain commanding advantages in Alberta and Saskatchewan/Manitoba.
The Liberal accessible voter pool also remains larger: 58% of Canadians say they would consider voting Liberal compared with 49% who would consider voting Conservative.
Methodology: The survey was conducted with a representative sample of Canadian adults via the PureSpectrum platform, weighted to census figures. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based sample is +/- 1.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The survey was paid for by Abacus Data.