A new Liaison Strategies poll puts the Liberals at 41 per cent and the Conservatives at 32 per cent among decided and leaning voters, but the National Post’s lead finding is the NDP’s recovery: the party now polls at more than double the 6.3 per cent it won in the last federal election, up about five points in under two months and approaching its traditional 15–20 per cent band. Analysts quoted in the piece — Liaison’s David Valentin, SFU political scientist Sanjay Jeram, and Leger’s Andrew Enns — frame the NDP rise as potential good news for the Conservatives, since a more even split of the progressive vote could help the Tories close the gap, though it also threatens some Conservative-held seats in Ontario and B.C. where the NDP is the main challenger.
Pollsters attribute part of the shift to leader Avi Lewis, citing his “controversial” government-run grocery store proposal as drawing attention to the party and noting that the share of Canadians unfamiliar with him has fallen to 22 per cent from 30 per cent. On leader ratings, Liaison gives Carney a +20, Poilievre a –12, and Lewis a +3 (26 per cent favourable, 23 per cent unfavourable). The survey of 1,526 Canadians ran May 31–June 13 with a margin of error of 2.5 points, 19 times out of 20. The article notes the Liberals now hold a parliamentary majority after recent by-election wins and floor crossings, including one from the NDP.
Source: National Post. Reproduced for reference under fair dealing (Copyright Act, s. 29).