Liaison Strategies’ latest Federal Tracker shows the Liberals under Mark Carney holding a 9-point lead, up from 8 the previous week. Among decided and leaning voters: Liberals 41%, Conservatives 32%, NDP 14% (down one point), Bloc Québécois 6%, with the Greens, PPC, and Other at 2% each. Among all voters: Liberals 36%, Conservatives 27%, NDP 12%, Bloc 5%, others 2% each, and 14% undecided.
Avi Lewis favourability
The release highlights movement in NDP Leader Avi Lewis’s public standing. His favourable rating ticked up to 26% and his unfavourable rating rose to 23%. The most notable shift was in familiarity: the share of voters saying they are not familiar with Lewis fell from 30% to 22% — the lowest the pollster has recorded for him. The accompanying analysis framed the open question as “whether Lewis becoming better known helps the NDP or simply makes him more polarizing.”
Regional and demographic notes
Regionally, the Liberals led in Atlantic Canada, Quebec, Ontario, the Prairies (flagged for small sample size), and British Columbia; the Conservatives led in Alberta. In B.C., the NDP sat at 26% (Liberals 39%, Conservatives 29%). Among voters aged 18–34, the race was tight — Liberals 29%, NDP 27%, Conservatives 24% — while voters 65 and older broke heavily Liberal at 60%.
Full release, including weekly trend figures and methodology, at the source link above.