338Canada’s weekly polling roundup highlights a sharp disagreement among federal pollsters over the size of the Liberal lead and, with it, the state of Avi Lewis’s NDP. Trackers from Nanos Research and Liaison Strategies both put the Liberals in the low 40s and the Conservatives in the low 30s, but split on the NDP: Nanos kept the party in low double digits, while Liaison’s 16 per cent reading appeared to come “out of nowhere.”
The piece weighs whether that jump signals that “Avi Lewis’s NDP is finally winning back support from left-of-centre voters who lent their votes to the Liberals last year,” noting that 16 per cent would be much closer to the NDP’s historical average than the unusually weak 6–9 per cent range measured across much of the preceding 15 months. A subsequent Léger poll complicated the narrative, placing the Liberals at 50 per cent nationally and the NDP back down at 6 per cent, tied with the Bloc Québécois. Fournier cautions that Léger has shown a consistent Liberal-friendly house effect since the 2025 election but has an exceptional track record overall.
A new Abacus Data survey landed in the middle, at Liberals 44, Conservatives 36 and NDP 11, while detecting a gradual cooling in sentiment toward the federal government (approval down five points to 52 per cent). The bottom line: with the NDP climbing into double digits according to every active firm except Léger, the update argues that when individual polls diverge this widely, the aggregate average is the more reliable guide.
Source: 338Canada. Reproduced for reference under fair dealing (Copyright Act, s. 29).