Note: polling release. Summary and headline numbers preserved for reference; full tables and methodology at the source link above.
Abacus Data’s national tracking survey, fielded as Canada–U.S. trade talks collapsed and new American tariffs took effect, finds the political environment moving toward the Liberals. Prime Minister Mark Carney suspended negotiations on August 21 rather than accept Washington’s terms, and 50 per cent U.S. tariffs came into force the following day; most interviews were completed after those developments. The survey also lands on the eve of three byelections in Quebec, Ontario and British Columbia.
Among committed voters, 45 per cent would vote Liberal, 35 per cent Conservative, 9 per cent NDP, 7 per cent Bloc Québécois, 2 per cent Green and 1 per cent People’s Party. The Liberal lead is now ten points, up from seven two weeks earlier. Liberal support is up three points and Conservative support is unchanged; the NDP is down one point from the August 12 wave, as are the Bloc and the People’s Party, with the Greens down two.
Among Canadians certain to vote the picture is almost identical: 46 per cent Liberal to 36 per cent Conservative, with the NDP unchanged at 9 per cent.
Coletto reports that government approval has risen four points to 56 per cent, with disapproval down two points to 29 per cent, and that Carney’s personal numbers have strengthened to 53 per cent positive against 28 per cent negative, a net impression of +25.
The public agenda has also shifted. Forty-five per cent of Canadians now name Trump and his administration as one of the three most important issues facing the country, up seven points in two weeks — the second-most cited issue nationally behind the rising cost of living, and the top issue in Quebec. Among those who name Trump as a top issue, 60 per cent would vote Liberal against 21 per cent Conservative, and 62 per cent say the Liberals are best able to deal with the administration, against 18 per cent for the Conservatives.
Source: Abacus Data. Reproduced for reference under fair dealing (Copyright Act, s. 29).