Grenier’s Weekly Writ argues that the collapse of Canada–US trade negotiations has realigned Mark Carney with public opinion after sixteen months of drift from the “Elbows Up” posture that won him the 2025 election. He cites a Léger poll taken before the breakdown showing 56 per cent of Canadians wanted the government to take a hard line and make no further concessions, against 31 per cent urging flexibility — a gap that, he says, put Carney at risk of being out of step in the days when the Liberals appeared to be priming the country for a deal.
Polling after the fact was lopsided. An Angus Reid Institute survey found 76 per cent thought Carney did the right thing in ending negotiations and 13 per cent thought it the wrong move; 62 per cent expected retaliatory tariffs to be the right response, with a further 16 per cent wanting a harder line still. Only a third felt Canada had meaningful control over the outcome. A second ARI poll found 69 per cent want premiers to take a Team Canada approach against 22 per cent preferring Province First — 32 per cent in Alberta, 18 per cent in Quebec. Grenier reads the numbers as leaving Carney both public backing and capital to spend in bringing premiers into line.
He argues the shift further isolates Pierre Poilievre, citing Pollara numbers giving Carney a 58–23 advantage on trust to manage Canada–US relations, and notes the Conservative leader is already facing internal headwinds.
The remainder of the newsletter — a preview of Monday’s three federal byelections in Beaches—East York, Chicoutimi—Le Fjord and North Vancouver—Capilano, which Grenier frames as “tests for all four major parties,” plus new national, Ontario and Quebec polling and the #EveryElectionProject historical entry — is behind the subscriber wall and was not retrievable.
Source: The Writ. Summarized for reference under fair dealing (Copyright Act, s. 29).