A 2,655-word survey of Canadian federal politics written for an Australian readership, framed around Mark Carney’s political latitude after the collapse of Canada–US trade talks on August 21. Malloy, a political scientist at Carleton University, walks through the breakdown of the August negotiations, Carney’s public standing, Pierre Poilievre’s difficulties, the state of the NDP under Avi Lewis, and the return of provincial separatism in Quebec and Alberta.
On the NDP and Avi Lewis
Carney’s shift to the right has at least given some oxygen to the social democratic New Democrats, whose horrid few years culminated in their loss of parliamentary party status in last year’s election after they won only seven seats (now down to five after the floor-crossing and a Quebec MP’s departure to provincial politics). The NDP warrants some sympathy: for decades they consistently railed against becoming too dependent on the United States, only to see their support collapse in the 2025 election as voters raced to their new nationalist champion Mark Carney. But as Carney moves clearly to the right, the NDP once again has some wiggle room under their new leader Avi Lewis.
Despite lacking a parliamentary seat and having been defeated twice in his attempts to do so, Lewis brings new energy to the party, along with a noticeable bloodline. His grandfather David Lewis once held the same job as federal party leader and his father Stephen Lewis was a former leader of the Ontario NDP. While a July poll found only 12 per cent of Canadians could even name Lewis as party leader (compared to 57 per cent for Conservative Poilievre), there is at least a chance for the NDP, with nowhere to go but up.
Malloy also notes the effect of floor-crossings on the House arithmetic:
In the past year five MPs have crossed the floor to join his party, a wave not seen since the nineteenth century. They range from an Inuit member of the left-wing New Democrat Party to a Conservative with a history of vaccine scepticism. Further boosted by successful by-elections, the Liberals have had a majority in the House of Commons since April.
On the partisan split over Trump, he cites an October poll finding “98 per cent of Liberal and 97 per cent of NDP supporters disapproved of Trump,” against 50 per cent of Conservatives — a divide he argues leaves Poilievre unable to articulate an alternative or change the subject.
Remainder of the article
The rest of the piece covers the mechanics of the failed negotiations (Malloy attributes the collapse to commerce secretary Howard Lutnick reopening terms that trade representative Jamieson Greer had settled), Carney’s public image relative to Justin Trudeau and Doug Ford, Conservative leadership speculation around Michael Chong, the Parti Québécois’s position ahead of the Quebec provincial election, and Alberta’s October separation vote — none of it bearing directly on the federal NDP transition.
Source: Inside Story. Summarized with excerpts for reference under fair dealing (Copyright Act, s. 29).