The last week before municipal nominations close is always a flurry of activity in Toronto, with late entrants to the mayoral and ward contests getting into the race and, in some cases, some longtime councillors announcing they won’t run after all. So it is in 2026, with a number of announcements in the last several days which look to reshape the elected government of Ontario’s largest city — some more surprising than others.
The first was that former councillor Mike Layton will be getting back into public life, having taken a four-year hiatus working on food affordability, among other issues. Layton had only weeks earlier denied he was interested in a return to politics, choosing not to run for the federal NDP seat in Beaches—East York. That was then and this is now: on Monday, Layton announced he’ll run against incumbent Dianne Saxe (Ontario’s former and final environmental commissioner) in University—Rosedale.
Nate Erskine-Smith, not very far removed from the bruising experience of narrowly losing the Liberal nomination in Scarborough Southwest, followed on Wednesday announcing that he will run for the municipal seat in his former federal riding of Beaches—East York, vacated by councillor Brad Bradford as he runs for mayor. Erskine-Smith joins a race that already had several candidates, but as the riding’s MP for the last 11 years he’s the presumptive frontrunner. After Erskine-Smith the most prominent other candidate in the race is former CTV reporter Natalie Johnston, who has the support of some prominent Liberals, including former premier Kathleen Wynne.
None of these races should be seen as predetermined; there’s still plenty of time left before election day for a challenger to flame out, or for an incumbent to do something publicly silly that harms their chances. For the voters of Toronto however, there’s more than just individual ward contests at stake here. Mayor Olivia Chow, when she won the special election in 2023, inherited a council where predecessor John Tory had, over a decade, managed to shape a working majority that supported his agenda. All of those councillors still had their seats when she became mayor and, while she’s clearly been able to implement an agenda (including larger tax increases than Toronto had seen in recent memory, which have helped right the city’s perennially dysfunctional finances), she’s also faced constraints.
Replacing her most public critic in Bradford with Erskine-Smith in Beaches—East York presents the most obvious net gain for the mayor’s agenda, but the mayor would certainly also welcome Layton’s face back at city hall (should she keep her job). Some of the other cases are more ambiguous: Moise has been a nearly-uniform vote with the mayor according to analysis from independent journalist Matt Elliott; Ehrhardt winning in Toronto—Danforth would bring a different perspective but would not change the vote count at council; and if Myers loses in Scarborough North that would represent a major blow to Chow’s strength on council and the cause of housing reform city-wide.
And aside from the races where there’s been news in just the last week there are interesting challenges to council incumbents all over the city, as well as the race for the open seat in Parkdale—High Park. All of which is to say that while the events of the last week have been chaotic, we shouldn’t lose the signal in the noise. Chow and her allies in municipal politics have some real chances to solidify a stronger coalition if not an outright solid majority of allies on council. The next four years in Toronto could feature some very different faces and policies, depending on what happens next.
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