NDP Leader Avi Lewis says the Billy Bishop airport saga makes this month’s byelection ‘extra relevant in this moment’
With the NDP jockeying to take back a Toronto-area riding it held during its Orange Wave heyday, Leader Avi Lewis is hoping a tiff between the city, province and Ottawa will tilt the scales in his favour.
Lewis canvassed late Tuesday with his party’s Beaches—East York byelection candidate Shannon Devine, a local labour activist who is hoping to steal the seat from the Liberals on Aug. 31. Nate Erskine-Smith stepped away this summer and has thrown his weight behind his former Liberal constituency staffer Tanveer Shahnawaz.
Lewis, who himself does not have a seat in the House, told reporters that Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s plans to expand the Billy Bishop airport may have been halted by Prime Minister Mark Carney, but there is lingering frustration among residents — who he said can send a “message” to Ottawa about that discontent.
Last month, Ottawa grounded the premier’s push to expand the Toronto Island airport to let larger jets land in the area, but when asked by reporters if he would rule out allowing jets forever, the prime minister wouldn’t say, adding that “forever is a long time.” The saga has had provincial fallout, with some of Ford’s MPPs subsequently speaking out against Ottawa’s Alto rail project ambitions.
For Lewis, the sticky issue is one that he hopes Devine can ride into victory later this month.
“This (byelection) feels extra relevant in this moment, because it’s a waterfront riding in Toronto, the issue of the jets at the airport is still very fresh. People are really annoyed that they thought they had won against these jets and the expansion of Billy Bishop, and all of a sudden the prime minister is saying, ‘Oh, forever is a long time.’ He’s suddenly flip-flopping again — people are upset about that,” Lewis told reporters.
The party captain was referring to public opposition to the expansion, which Ottawa said was captured in an online federal consultation that found 87 per cent of 87,000 respondents didn’t want an extension. The file has also put Liberal MPs in the Toronto area in a tough spot, with some, like Environment Minister Julie Dabrusin, thanking residents for making their “voices heard” on the issue after the feds grounded the province’s push.
Toronto Mayor Olivia Chow is also caught up in the saga, and has opposed Ford’s expansion plans.
Lewis, for his part, argued that the waterfront has meaning for local residents and carries tourist value. He also said he has environmental concerns, particularly at a time when Canadians are seeing the impacts of wildfires across communities.
“We don’t need jets and billionaire CEOs flying in to make their meetings downtown and have jets buzzing over the waterfront of Toronto. People in this riding know that,” he said. “They want to send a message to Ottawa and say, ‘Hey, we need some clear action from the federal government here. And if not — and we are at a ‘not’ — we’re going to send a message.’”
Blackbird Strategies consultant Hannah Walhad predicted that line of messaging will resonate with voters, though she urged Lewis to go further.
A longtime NDP organizer who worked for Lewis’ predecessor, Jagmeet Singh, Walhad said Lewis’ decision to campaign on the airport expansion is a good “starting point” that should be rolled into other proposals the party is pitching.
“Billy Bishop, I think, becomes a way to talk about everything that is going to affect Canadians at large — transportation, development, infrastructure, climate, affordability. At this point, Avi and his team are having a much broader conversation about what kind of city people want to live in and what they’re going to have to be living with,” Walhad told Parliament Today.
“The environment that the NDP is working with right now, it’s very difficult, but I think if they’re having these authentic conversations with a base that cares about progressive values, about affordability, about jobs, about stability, about the climate — this is a great chance for him to be visiting all these ridings and building a case for New Democrats.”
At the same time, Walhad acknowledged that Lewis is facing an uphill battle as he tries to rebuild a squad that lost party status after last year’s election. That’s on top of a broader push to get traditional NDP supporters, and those who have moved away from the party, “excited again” about what it can offer.
“Avi has quite a challenge. His job right now, it’s not necessarily about winning byelections,” she added. “This is a chance for testing a message, really, in this byelection. I don’t think at this point it’s about a win or a loss, but it’s re-engaging people who have either left the party or feel downtrodden with what happened in the last election.”
For Devine, it’s worth noting that her event drew what the party said was over 300 supporters upset that the city is represented by a “sea of red” — a nod to the Liberal-heavy Toronto downtown core — who she argued are not speaking up loudly enough against the province’s airport plans.
“We have to fight so hard to get any recognition on things like ‘no jets at Billy Bishop,’” she said. “We’re hearing from residents that they feel very frustrated that they had to fight so hard to be heard, and that they don’t trust that the government isn’t going to backpedal on this.”
Devine is expected to have her work cut out for her. The NDP does not currently hold any seats in Ontario and the Beaches—East York seat has been represented by the Liberals since 2015. Economist Matthew Kellway held it for the NDP for four years before that, part of the party’s historic Orange Wave under late leader Jack Layton.
In last year’s election, Devine came in a distant third in the riding, capturing just under seven per cent of the vote, well behind Erskine-Smith’s 67 per cent and the Conservatives’ 23 per cent.
Eyes on Quebec
But the fun doesn’t stop there for the NDP, as the party could fare better in the Quebec riding of Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie.
Carney has not yet set a byelection for that seat, which Alex Boulerice defended last year as an NDP candidate with a nine per cent margin over the Liberals. Boulerice now sits as an Independent as he prepares for a fall provincial election bid, and Walhad said she is keeping her eye on this looming race.
Lewis, who has said voters deserve a representative from the province and has ruled out running for the Quebec seat, has promised to mount a full-court press to defend the riding. He’s also stressed that he’s in no rush to seek a seat in Parliament because his focus is on connecting with the party’s grassroots — an argument Walhad said makes sense as a political newcomer.
While Walhad acknowledged that it took Singh over a year to secure a seat in Parliament after winning the top job, she cautioned against making comparisons between him and Lewis given the pair are operating in “very different political environments.”
Singh came to Ottawa via a February 2019 byelection and became one of 24 NDP MPs elected in that fall’s election, while Lewis is inheriting a team of just five MPs today. Walhad noted that Singh was also navigating a minority Parliament led by Justin Trudeau that fall, compared to a majority that Carney currently oversees thanks to several floor-crossers.