Liaison Strategies’ Weekly Federal Tracker for the week of August 3, 2026 shows the Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, holding a 9-point lead over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, with Carney’s approval edging upward and Poilievre’s favourability slipping.
Vote intention
Among decided and leaning voters:
| Party | Support |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 43% |
| Conservative | 34% |
| NDP | 12% |
| Bloc Québécois | 6% |
| Green | 2% |
| PPC | 2% |
| Other | 1% |
Among all voters, the Liberals are at 39%, the Conservatives at 30%, the NDP at 11%, the Bloc at 5%, the Greens at 2%, the PPC and Other at 1% each, with 11% undecided.
“The Liberal lead is unchanged at 9 points this week. The Liberals are down one point to 43%, the Conservatives are down one point to 34%, and the NDP is up one point to 12%. The topline has moved, but only a little. The broader story is that the Liberals remain in the low-to-mid 40s and the Conservatives remain in the mid-30s.”
“Among all voters, the Liberals are at 39%, the Conservatives are at 30%, and the NDP is at 11%. Undecided is down to 11%, which is a notable move from 14% last week. The Liberals have not expanded the decided-voter lead, but there are fewer voters sitting outside the ballot question.”
Leader favourability
Carney’s approval is 57%, with 34% disapproving and 9% not sure — up one point on approval and down one on disapproval from the previous week, leaving him at a net positive of 23 points.
Poilievre’s favourable rating is down two points to 34% and his unfavourable rating is up one point to 52%, with 8% not sure and 5% not familiar with him. Valentin described it as a soft week for the Conservative leader personally, noting his favourability has been as high as 36% last week and 39% earlier in the year.
On the NDP leader:
“Avi Lewis is at 30% favourable, 29% unfavourable, 22% not sure, and 19% not familiar with him. His favourable number is up one point, but his unfavourable number is up two points. The net is still slightly positive, but he is becoming better known in both directions.”
“Lewis continues to matter to the national picture because the NDP’s vote is uneven. Nationally, the NDP is at 12% among decided and leaning voters, but they are at 23% among voters aged 18 to 34 and 22% in British Columbia.”
Regional and demographic splits
The Liberals lead in Ontario, 48% to 36%; in Quebec, 44% to 25% over the Bloc and 20% over the Conservatives; and in British Columbia, 43% to 31%. The Conservatives lead in Alberta, 51% to 32%, and in the Prairies, 45% to 32%.
Women favour the Liberals 48% to 27%, while men are much tighter, with the Liberals at 41% and the Conservatives at 40%. Among voters aged 18 to 34, the Liberals are at 35%, the Conservatives at 27%, and the NDP at 23%. Among voters 65 and older, the Liberals lead 57% to 30%.
Methodology
Liaison surveyed a random sample of 1,526 Canadians from July 19 to August 1, 2026, using Interactive Voice Recording technology, with participants reached through random digit dialling across landline and cellular networks. The data was weighted to 2021 Census targets. The margin of error for the total sample is ±2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, and higher for sub-samples. Liaison Strategies is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council.