This latest wave of research captures the first snapshot of public opinion following the Liberals’ by-election victories, which have now secured them a majority in the House of Commons. The results suggest that rather than triggering any backlash, the shift to majority government has coincided with a modest strengthening of the Liberals’ position.
If anything, the story is one of consolidation and quiet endorsement. The Liberals have widened their vote lead, Prime Minister Mark Carney’s personal numbers remain strong, and there is no evidence of a negative public reaction to the party holding a majority. Instead, opinion appears to have settled into a pattern that continues to favour the governing party.
Taken together, the data point to a political environment that is not only stable, but increasingly tilted in the Liberals’ direction.
Direction of the Country: Steady at Home, Deeply Pessimistic Abroad
Public opinion about the direction of the country remains closely divided, but stable.
Today, 41% of Canadians say the country is headed in the right direction, while 43% say it is on the wrong track. This represents little meaningful change from earlier in April and suggests that the shift to majority government has not disrupted underlying sentiment.
Views of the world remain overwhelmingly negative. Just 11% believe the world is headed in the right direction, compared with 77% who say it is on the wrong track. Perceptions of the United States are similarly pessimistic, with only 13% saying things are going well and 80% saying they are not.
The defining feature of public opinion persists: Canadians continue to see their own country as relatively stable in contrast to a world marked by uncertainty and volatility. The continuation of this “optimism gap” reinforces a broader environment that tends to benefit incumbents, particularly when they are seen as steady managers in uncertain times.
| Geography | Right Direction | Wrong Track | Unsure | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | 41% | 43% | 16% | -2 |
| The World | 11% | 77% | 12% | -66 |
| The USA | 13% | 80% | 7% | -67 |
% saying Canada is headed in the right direction — by subgroup
Atlantic Canada (46%) and Ontario (43%) are most optimistic. Alberta is least optimistic at 32%. Liberal 2025 voters are far more optimistic (61%) than Conservative voters (23%).
| Region | % Right Direction |
|---|---|
| Canada | 41% |
| BC | 43% |
| Alberta | 32% |
| SK / MB | 38% |
| Ontario | 43% |
| Quebec | 40% |
| Atlantic | 46% |
| Age | % Right Direction |
|---|---|
| 18 to 29 | 38% |
| 30 to 44 | 33% |
| 45 to 59 | 42% |
| 60 and over | 49% |
| 2025 Federal Vote | % Right Direction |
|---|---|
| Liberal | 61% |
| Conservative | 23% |
| NDP | 37% |
| Bloc Québécois | 35% |
Issue Agenda: Cost of Living Dominates, Structure Unchanged
The issue landscape remains familiar, with affordability continuing to dominate.
Two-thirds (66%) of Canadians cite the rising cost of living as a top issue, followed by the economy (41%) and healthcare (38%). Concerns about Donald Trump and his administration (34%) and housing affordability (32%) round out the next tier.
What stands out is not change, but consistency. The same set of issues continues to define the political agenda.
Top priorities for the federal government — April 2026 (change vs. January 2026)
| Priority | April 2026 | Change vs. Jan 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| The rising cost of living | 66% | ▲6 |
| The economy | 41% | ▼1 |
| Healthcare | 38% | ▲1 |
| Donald Trump and his administration | 34% | ▼1 |
| Housing affordability and accessibility | 32% | ▲1 |
| Immigration | 24% | ▲1 |
| Job security and unemployment | 14% | ▼4 |
| Crime and public safety | 14% | ▼2 |
| Climate change and the environment | 11% | ▼4 |
| Inequality and poverty | 11% | NC |
| The rise of artificial intelligence | 7% | NEW |
| The threat posed by China and Russia | 5% | ▼1 |
| Indigenous reconciliation | 3% | NC |
Government Approval: Stable and Solidly Positive
Approval of the federal government remains in clearly positive territory.
Currently, 54% of Canadians approve of the job the Carney government is doing, compared with 29% who disapprove. These numbers are broadly unchanged and continue to reflect a durable base of support.
Approval has risen sharply from 27% in February 2025 to 54% in April 2026.
Importantly, the transition to a majority government has not produced any measurable decline in approval. Combined with our previous release showing that nearly half of Canadians are satisfied with a Liberal majority, almost double the proportion who are dissatisfied, this suggests the public is, at minimum, comfortable with the outcome.
Rather than triggering concern about concentrated power, the majority appears to have reinforced perceptions of stability and direction.
Leader Impressions: Carney’s Advantage Endures
Prime Minister Mark Carney continues to enjoy strong personal ratings.
He holds a net favourability of +22, with 51% of Canadians expressing a positive impression and 29% a negative one. These numbers are consistent with recent waves and indicate that his personal brand remains a central pillar of Liberal strength.
By contrast, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre remains in negative territory, with a net impression of -7 (37% positive, 44% negative) while NDP leader Avi Lewis is further behind at -11.
Carney’s net favourability has held above +20 since January 2026.
| Leader | Positive | Negative | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Carney (Liberal) | 51% | 29% | +22 |
| Pierre Poilievre (Conservative) | 37% | 44% | -7 |
| Avi Lewis (NDP) | — | — | -11 |
The gap between the two leaders remains a defining feature of the political landscape. Carney’s broader appeal continues to anchor the Liberal coalition, while Poilievre’s support remains more constrained.
Vote Intention: Liberal Lead Widens as Majority Takes Hold
If an election were held today, the Liberals would receive 45% of the vote among decided voters, compared with 36% for the Conservatives.
This represents a 9-point Liberal lead, up from 6 points earlier in April. The Conservatives have slipped two points, while the Liberals have edged up slightly.
The NDP remains at 8%, while the Bloc Québécois stands at 7%.
Among those certain to vote, the Liberal advantage grows further, with the party at 47% compared with 36% for the Conservatives.
| Party | Decided voters | Certain to vote |
|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 45% | 47% |
| Conservative | 36% | 36% |
| NDP | 8% | — |
| Bloc Québécois | 7% | — |
Regional vote share (decided voters)
| Region | Liberal | Conservative |
|---|---|---|
| BC | 48% | — |
| Alberta | — | 60% |
| SK / MB | — | 47% |
| Ontario | 50% | — |
| Quebec | 43% | — |
| Atlantic | 58% | — |
Regionally, the Liberal coalition remains highly efficient: 48% in B.C., 50% in Ontario, 43% in Quebec and 58% in Atlantic Canada.
The Conservatives continue to dominate in Alberta (60%) and lead in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (47%), but these strengths are not sufficient to offset Liberal advantages elsewhere.
Demographically, the Liberals lead among older Canadians (54% among those 60+), are well ahead among Gen Z but trail slightly with Millennials. They hold a slight edge among both men and women.
Coletto’s analysis
According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto:
“The latest numbers suggest that the Liberals’ transition to a majority government has been absorbed by the public with little resistance and may even be reinforcing their advantage.
We see no evidence of a backlash. Approval remains stable, the Prime Minister’s personal ratings are strong, and the party has widened its lead in vote intention. Combined with earlier findings that Canadians are more satisfied than dissatisfied with a Liberal majority, the results point to a level of comfort with the current direction.
At the same time, the broader opinion environment remains remarkably steady. Canadians are still divided on the direction of the country, deeply pessimistic about the world, and focused on a familiar set of issues led by affordability.
For the Conservatives, the challenge remains structural. They continue to hold advantages on issues like immigration and crime, but those strengths are not translating into broader momentum. Meanwhile, the Liberals are benefiting from a wider coalition of support and a leader with consistently positive impressions.
What stands out most is how little disruption the move to majority government has caused in public opinion.
Instead of changing the trajectory, it appears to have reinforced it.”
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 2,000 Canadian adults from April 16 to 22, 2026.
A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the PureSpectrum platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is plus or minus 2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
All research conducted by Abacus Data is based on responses from real human participants recruited through verified, double opt-in panel partners. No synthetic, simulated, or AI-generated responses are used at any stage. All research complies with CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data.