Today is the first day Prime Minister Mark Carney will be heading to Parliament Hill with his newly minted majority government. Winning all three seats that were up for grabs in Monday’s byelections, the federal Liberals are entering a new era.
What will this mean for federal political dynamics, the timing of the next federal election, and passing policy? Here’s what you need to know.
Liberals now hold 174 seats
The Liberals on Monday handily held onto the two Toronto-area ridings of University—Rosedale and Scarborough Southwest, and picked up the hotly contested Terrebonne, Que. after last year’s election result was invalidated by the Supreme Court.
Monday’s results put the Liberals at 174 seats. The Conservatives have 140 seats, the Bloc Quebecois 22, the NDP six, and the Greens one.
Now, while the Liberals have secured a majority, it’s still slim, and could still fluctuate as Parliament carries on.
In a post to social media Monday night, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre wrote that the Liberals “did not win a majority government through a general election or today’s byelections.”
“Instead, it was won through backroom deals with politicians who betrayed the people who voted for them,” Poilievre also said, referencing the slate of MPs who have crossed the floor to the Liberals since November, and adding he will “continue to fight” for Canadians in Parliament.
Two sitting Liberal MPs could potentially call it quits before the session is over: Jonathan Wilkinson has been offered a diplomatic post in Europe but hasn’t said whether he’ll take it, and there have been reports Nate Erskine-Smith is considering a bid for the Ontario Liberal leadership.
There is also still rampant speculation that additional opposition floor-crossers — beyond the five that have already flipped — are waiting in the wings to join the Liberals.
Political implications for all parties
Scott Reid — a CTV News political analyst and former communications director to prime minister Paul Martin — said Liberals’ win at the ballot box, instead of through another floor crosser, adds “legitimacy” to their hold on power.
“I think they’ll feel that at a political level, (they’ll) at least have a lot less to defend,” Reid said, adding that the key for Carney going forward, will be to focus on the issue that won him a majority, which is the economy, jobs, growth, and the ongoing trade war with the United States.
CTV News political analyst and former Conservative cabinet minister James Moore said the expectations of the government will change “dramatically” now that the Liberals have a majority.
He said there are “no excuses” but to deliver on a promised agenda.
“Now we’ve got minority-Parliament brain shifting to majority-government brain, (it) creates a whole different dynamic in how you govern and how you build coalitions and advance things, build public consensus and meet that expectations game of having a majority,” Moore said.
The change from a minority to majority Parliament will also have knock-on implications for the opposition leaders, according to political strategists.
Shakir Chambers, who previously worked in former Conservative prime minister Stephen Harper’s office, said that Poilievre is also now facing a more challenging Parliament.
“I think, moving forward in his majority, he still has to hold the government to account, but he has to find a way to shift that tone just slightly,” Chambers said.
Kathleen Monk, an NDP strategist and director of communications to the late Jack Layton, said the calculation for new NDP Leader Avi Lewis is different than it is for Poilievre, as he doesn’t have a seat in the House and only became leader two weeks ago.
“There’s actually a window of opportunity for the new leader in Avi Lewis, to actually make a name for himself and pick away at Carney’s left flank,” said Monk, adding that the prime minister has been “too busy vacuuming up the middle and trying to occupy that center ground, to take in progressive conservatives and radical right-wing conservatives into the Liberal house.”
With a majority government, the Liberals could hold onto power until 2029 and the end of the parliamentary session without the risk of being toppled by the opposition, because the numbers are on their side during votes of confidence in the House.
An election may be called sooner, however, if the Carney wants to take his chances at the polls in the hopes of securing an even larger majority.
Impacts on Parliament
The shift from a minority to majority government could also impact the way Parliament functions going forward. With 174 seats, the Liberals could update the Standing Orders to take control of parliamentary committees, paving the way for them to move legislation more quickly. But, that’s likely to cause friction with the opposition parties.
“Once you can control committees, you can control the passage of legislation through the House of Commons, you can bring in time limitations on debate, you can execute against your agenda,” Reid said.
Moore said with fewer than eight sitting weeks left until the House rises for the summer, there’s a “tight legislative timeline to get some things done.”
But, he added, the majority should give the government “some breathing room” and the ability to better plan the legislative agenda through to the end of the year. That will be critical, he said, ahead of what is likely to be an acrimonious review of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement this summer.